Why nine points (and only nine) gets Fulham in Europe
We've done the maths on how Fulham can bring European nights back to Craven Cottage
I realise that writing the following article after Saturday’s battering at Arsenal is ill-timed, but I’ve done some maths and I hate to tell you that the Europe dream is still on.
It does however require Fulham to do something that’s been pretty tricky this season: win three games in a row.
As a reminder, we play:
Bournemouth (H)
Wolves (A)
Newcastle Utd (H)
Three wins would get us to 57 points. Remember that number, it’s going to be important later.
The biggest obstacle is obviously Bournemouth at the weekend, who on Sunday reached a whopping 15 league games without defeat with their 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace.
Then again, Fulham are strong at home and we shouldn’t fear any side at Craven Cottage Cottage. Bournemouth are great side, but in a one-off match we shouldn’t view it as an impossibility to get three points.
If Fulham can get the business done against the Cherries, we have two perfect matches (on paper) to end the season. A Wolves team who are already relegated with tensions in the stands at an all-time high and a Newcastle United team who are poor on the road and will likely have nothing to play for on the final day.
But, how can I be so sure that even nine points gets us into Europe given that we are quite far behind our rivals? Well I’m very happy to show my calculations. Of course, predicting so many matches is a bit of a mug’s game - but there is one thing that makes me fairly confident of my calculations, that is: Manchester City.
Despite the dropped points at Everton, Pep’s title chasers are on the hunt and in my opinion it’s highly likely that they will win every match between now and the end of the season. Fortunately for us, they play two of our European rivals (Bournemouth and Brentford) in that time.
For the other games, I’ve tried to be pretty generous to those we’re competing with, while also making a few risky calls such as Brentford not winning at Anfield, which I do concede is feasible.
Bournemouth:
Ful (A) - lose
City (H) - lose
Forest (A) - win
Final pts: 55
Brentford:
City (A) - lose
Palace (H) - win
Liverpool (A) - draw
Final pts: 55
Brighton:
Wolves (H) - win
Leeds (A) - win
Man Utd (H) - draw
Final pts: 57
Chelsea:
Liverpool (A) - lose
Spurs (H) - win
Sunderland (A) - win
Final pts: 54
Everton:
Palace (A) - win
Sunderland (H) - win
Spurs (A) - draw
Final pts: 55
As you can see, if Fulham can get themselves to 57 points, then I’m confident that eighth place is more than possible. In fact, the above scenario would have Fulham seventh behind Brighton on goal difference.
I don’t think 55 points (one draw and two wins) will be enough given our inferior goal difference to every other team. It’s simply 57 or bust in my opinion.
There will of course be unexpected twists and turns before the end of the season, but there is no doubt that the prize is still open to Fulham if they want it. Let’s hope that Marco and the boys show some mettle that has alluded us in recent years.
It all starts this Saturday at the Cottage. An absolutely pivotal game in our recent history.
European competition is the goal.
Breaking through the Cherries high press is mandatory. Thus, the long ball with King or Muniz chasing it, can be an out. Or bringing in Cuenca and Diop beside Bassey and Anderson with Robinson & Castagne & Lukic as the midfield - leaving Samu/ESR/Wilson to attack. This is all predicated on Leno being extremely focussed.
At this time of the season, staying with the same old can be picked apart eg. Arsenal Arses
Wish I was as confident as you about beating Bournemouth. We need some of our first team back, and even then it will be tough. Fingers crossed. COYW.