How many points do Fulham need in our first five games?

The Arbeloa era faces a tricky start...

Credit: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Twelve months is a hell of a long time in football.

As Fulham prepares to start the 2026-27 season, things couldn’t feel more different to last summer: our 25-26 season previews were filled with words like “solid”, “stable”, “steady” and “deja vu”. We fretted about a total absence of transfer business, and everyone predicted that we would finish mid-table. It was an easy season to forecast.

It’s impossible to over-stress what an anomaly Marco Silva’s reign was when you compare it to other clubs in the Premier League and Championship.

Exclude the super clubs challenging for titles, whose clout and cash vastly dwarves Fulham’s, and it’s hard to find a mid-table team who has built a dynasty around their manager. Compare Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, who were promoted with us - from July 2021 to May 2026, we had one permanent manager. Between them, they’ve had nine.

Silva’s exit from Fulham was a tad ugly, but his impact was undeniable: when he took on the role in 2021, Fulham was a yo-yo club, and we’re about to enter our fifth straight season in the Premier League. All this in a climate where it’s harder to stay up than ever. And in a world where a club’s identity is built more around their manager than anything else (certainly more than players and owners), my main feeling entering this season isn’t optimistic or pessimistic, but simply uncertain.

Uncertainty is a weird emotion to start the season with, especially in a world where football media is full of hot takes and predictions. I’ve heard the opinions from every corner of the Fulham stable, from wild optimism to doom and gloom. We could easily finish anywhere between 19th and maybe sixth.

I land somewhere quite cautious. I was concerned about Silva’s departure, especially as it seemed the owners expected him to stay. Arbeloa is an unknown prospect, and his lack of senior coaching experience does worry me. It’s extremely exciting that the manager is (finally) being backed in the transfer market - Gonzalo García’s arrival at the Cottage is certainly a statement.

We’re doing good business, and it’s early in the window, by Fulham’s standards at least. Plus, we’ve got Kevin and Bobb entering their second seasons at the club - they’re both young, exciting players with a point to prove. It could go horribly wrong, of course - if Arbeloa is terribly out of his depth, and is sacked in the autumn, we have a squad that’s full of players bought for him.

In previous seasons, I’ve poured over the table in pre-season, tallying up which games we need to win, which games we can afford to draw, and which games we can lose without too much concern. For example, a bottom-half team at home is a must-win (your Ipswiches, your Nottingham Forests, and in the last two seasons, your Tottenham Hotspurs). Bournemouth at home - you probably need at least a point there. City away - not essential for your survival.

Over the past few seasons, I’ve been able to discard this system flippantly. Fulham’s unpredictability changes things, and the restructuring of the calendar, with five games before the extended international break, will provide more of an opportunity for reflection. But how many points will we need to have by 21 September to breathe easy? Well…

Chelsea (H)

Unfortunately, I think Chelsea are going to have a good season. Xabi Alonso is clearly a coup - one that I didn’t see coming.

I think the story of the Premier League this season is going to be centred around fatigue, with the elite clubs playing more minutes and games than ever - as unsexy as that sounds. There are nine teams in Europe, and Chelsea have ‘lucked out’ by not being one of them. They’ve benefitted from playing badly enough in their last few games to avoid even Conference League football - which fans didn’t want anyway!

First game of the season and a derby: anything can happen. Chelsea’s huge squad is clearly a problem. Obviously this game means more than just its contribution towards Fulham’s survival, but we don’t need this one for Premier League safety.

Sunderland (A)

I can’t be the only one who’s annoyed that we play Sunderland before they’ve had a chance to wear out their overstretched squad with European football. It’s the opening game of the season at the Stadium of Light, but we did win there last term. We probably do need a point here, especially if we don’t win on opening day.

Crystal Palace (H)

Can the third game of a season be a ‘must win’? Palace are in a similar boat to us this season, with a new manager replacing an established club legend. Tipping Palace and Fulham to be in trouble is a similar kind of take: there is so much uncertainty swirling around both our clubs. Annoyingly, we face them before they can be stretched by their Europa League fixtures.

Fulham haven’t beaten Palace at Craven Cottage since 2005, but we might have to do it now. This is easily our most winnable game of our opening five fixtures.

Liverpool (A)

Terrible football takes amnesty here: I think Liverpool are going to win the league this season. We’ve had some thrillers at Anfield over the years, and I back this to be another high-scoring affair, but I’m not too worried if we don’t come away with anything.

Manchester United (H)

We haven’t beat Manchester United at Craven Cottage since 2009, but I think this might be a good opportunity. They played very few games last season, and Carrick only managed to turn around the ship when the rest of the league was knackered. After an inconsistent spell at Middlesbrough, Carrick is yet to prove himself at the top level in my eyes, and it could be choppy waters ahead.

What does that mean for us? It’d be great to take a point here - and I think United will have the kind of season that makes that look like a gettable result.

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I make that five points from our opening five games to keep us on track to steer us towards survival. It shakes out over the whole season, really: one point per game gets you to 38 points which is usually enough to stay up.

It goes without saying: we’re all dreaming bigger than this. I hope we’ll be talking about what’s possible after 10 points from our opening five games, or maybe… even more.