In the Hans Christian Andersen story, “The Emperor’s New Clothes”, an Emperor is captivated by clothing (and handsomeness) to exclusion of everything else, and is taken in by a pair of strangers from another land who tell him they will make him magnificent clothes (or football teams) that can only be seen by the worthy (and that are invisible to the incompetent and stupid).
The Emperor’s top ministers check on the progress of the the strangers, who show the supposedly magnificent piece of clothing and, even though the Emperor and his ministers can’t see the clothing, they pretend to because they don’t want to appear incompetent and stupid.
As a result, the Emperor ends up wearing the “clothing” in public and is only forced to realize he has almost nothing on because, even though many smart and loyal subjects didn’t say anything out of hope, fear or whatever, a small child finally yells out: “He has no clothes on!”
For Fulham, the Emperor in our story is Shad Khan, the ministers are Tony Khan and Ali Mac, the strangers are Alvaro Arbeloa and his team, and the small child is Manuel Angel. Oh, and the people are us.
Yes fellow Fulham fans, our leader has once again been sold an empty, but handsome, package in a suit jacket. We have hopefully been saved by diminutive Manuel Angel who has clearly told us, by his substitution on Satursday, that our Emperor has been hoodwinked.
As a side note, I know that many believe that our handsome, and questionably credentialed manager was hired by the Emperor’s son, but I believe he was hired by Shad himself, partly because Jose Mourinho told him it would work out very nicely for us and partly because the handsome manager said nice things in the interview (plus he came from Real Madrid, one of the few clubs he knows about).
And, it is clear, in what I’ve read, that our Emperor makes all the big decisions, like hiring a new manager. Of course, his son and crack CEO are also responsible for this disaster - they should have known better and pushed for a different and safer direction.
Regardless, it is time for us, the townspeople, to heed Manuel’s cry and make it clear to Shad and his team that it is time to put on some real clothes and hire a new manager if we want to actually stay in the Premier League. Here are five reasons why it’s time to make a change.
1. Arbeloa’s system is an incoherent, insufficient and toothless mess
AA came in with a (pretty vague) promise to play brave and aggressive football; to bring Spanish, World Cup-style winning football, to Craven Cottage.
We were told we’d be a team on the front foot, pressing more and taking more chances. Many of us in the Fulham community envisioned an exciting, high-octane offense. Instead, we got an incoherent approach. We went from a wide open offense against Chelsea to a conservative, risk-averse effort against Sunderland in the second game, then back to a risky every man up the pitch effort against Crystal Palace before going back again to a more measured approach against Liverpool and Manchester United.
Arbeloa’s great offensive scheme and innovation turned out to be pushing both full-backs up into the opponent’s final third, which helped us score goals but also give up many more as our opponents could just lob the ball over our team and score. Some Fulham fans thought that maybe we’d end up giving up goals but hopefully would score more. That’s not what has happened. We’ve given up eight goals and scored five. The xG situation is not much better. Fulham has created 7.74 xG but has given up 9.12 xG.
After it became clear that we couldn’t keep on sending everyone forward following the loss to Palace, we’ve scored just three goals in three games. Most importantly, it’s unclear what our offensive system or philosophy is now. We look toothless for wide swaths of the games we play. When they shoot, our players do not appear confident as they keep on missing open opportunities at goal.
Arbeloa’s offensive scheme has netted us a total of five goals (fifth worst in the league). But, we are third in the league in completed passes. Fulham have made 3,236 passes, just below Man City and Man United. That’s 647 passes for each goal. If one was generous, you could say we are the more ineffective - passing but not scoring - version of the Spanish national team and not the version that just won the World Cup.
Yes, our defense has got better but we still seem vulnerable to balls over the top, as witnessed by Maeda’s multiple runs behind our defense on Saturday (imagine what a more talented winger could have done with those opportunities) - and because we seem to wilt under pressure at the end of games.
2. We are actually not pressing that much and are not scoring goals from our press
Under Arbeloa, Fulham were supposed to be the kind of team that would press aggressively and win the ball back high up the pitch and score goals on turnovers. But, where is the pressing, my friends?
So far, Fulham have a total of 49 pressed sequences (13th in the league). While some have resulted in shots, none have resulted in goals. And, instead, we often get out-pressed by other teams (as we just saw against Ipswich). Gary O’Neil seemed to have plans around how to press with off ball pressure traps (e.g., players running in on the ball carrier) whereas we just seem to have Gonzalo Garcia running around a lot.
3. Arbeloa is a perplexing in-game manager
AA’s substitutions and in-game decisions are inconsistent and perplexing and have cost us goals and games.
Substituting 6’ 2” Shea Charles for 5’ 7” Manuel Angel when we were trying to defend a 1-0 lead with nearly 20 minutes left was a cry for help, as were many of his other substitutions. Parking the bus against Man United with tons of time left similarly was a head scratcher as is constantly playing our most talented offensive player - Kevin - on the right, when he is most dangerous on the left. Or playing Garcia and Muniz together for just a little while in the Ipswich game.
The results speak for themselves. We’ve lost points two games in a row after we were on track to get all of them. As The Athletic just pointed out: “Fulham have now conceded five goals in the 75th minute or later, more than any other team.”
4. His Madrid-focused transfer strategy appears to have not gotten us the players we need
Our manager pushed the focus of our recruitment strategy towards Real Madrid’s academy and this has not worked or resulted in goals and wins and instead has stacked our team with players who aren’t ready for the Premier League.
And, it also meant that - because of this exclusive focus - we didn’t get the other players we needed, like a new goalkeeper, a new right-back and a forward big and fast enough to deal with Premier League defense who could score and hold up the ball for us.
Instead, we spent £40m on Gonzalo Garcia. Five games in, Gonzalo is top 10 in the league in taking shots - he’s taken 15. Unfortunately, he’s only scored one goal, which gives him a conversion rate of 6.67%. He’s last on Fulham’s squad in “goals vs. xG” with -1.34. Yet he keeps starting every game.
Garcia was also billed as someone who would be a pressing machine for us, tormenting the opposing teams and winning the ball back. Unfortunately, he’s not been that strong at getting the ball back. To date, Gonzalo has one interception.
On the advice of our manager, we spent £40m on a forward who is not especially big, super fast or elite at finishing and does not seem to be exceptional at winning the ball back (and at hold up play). Ironically, the problem might be that he is playing in a system that is not suited for his talents, which may be his off-the-ball movement. I really don’t know, but I still hope he can be a good player for us.
And, the other Castilla players we recruited, Cesar Palacios and Manuel Angel, have not yet worked out and made a difference for the team. Like Garcia, while talented on the ball they are undersized and seemingly not great fits for the Premier League. But, Arbeloa has given them all minutes and, as his recent substitutions show, will likely keep on doing so if he remains our manager.
5. Arbeloa has off-the-field issues
We’ve had a few players publicly hint at their frustrations around Arbeloa’s management after this almost never happening for almost five years under Silva.
While things have got better recently, he seems to have problems with communicating with the team. In addition, Arbeloa does not take responsibility for losses and failures with the press and is quick to instead, blame the refs, luck and sometimes the players.
He runs down the tunnel after losses rather than clapping off Fulham supporters. And he says things like this when questioned about whether or not he should be worried for his future and the pressure he is about to face because of Fulham’s failure to win a league game (and position at the bottom of the league table):
“Me? Maybe you don’t know me, but I played for the best team in the world. I have coached the best team in the world.”
Ipswich was not the best team in the world and we collapsed against them. And, Arbeloa was fired by the best team in the world because of not delivering results. Our team, while not the best team in the world either, has talent but needs an actual system and plan that can work in the Premier League - and an experienced manager if we want to stay up.
I know that there are still some in the fanbase, smart people, who believe we just have to give Arbeloa more time to put his system in place. But, I ask those fans: can you please tell me what this system is that he is trying to put in place and why it will allow us to succeed in the Premier League? I am serious - I am ready to be educated.
I believe we need our Emperor to make a change - fast. I’m not sure if he heard the cry for help via Manuel Angel, but I hope so. Shad has a history of being too loyal and patient with his handsome and sartorially blessed hires who don’t work out.
The good news is that the last handsome manager they hired was actually good at managing football teams, so maybe they can recalibrate. Hopefully, because the financial consequences of Fulham going down will jeopardize the future of what Shad loves most about the Club - the Riverside Project - he, Tony and Ali Mac will move fast and make a change. Because if things don’t change soon, we may be headed straight out of the Premier League.
Of course things have not worked out how we hoped. From the first 33 seconds of the season AA has been under pressure. Our biggest problem is that we are unable to see out games. We have dropped 8 points, which would have seen us in 7/8 place. Instead we are bottom.
It has been unfortunate that TC has been injured. He would have helped get us over the line.
Like many, I am confounded on some of the substitution choices made. Have there been injuries, or is he just trying to quell the dressing room and give everyone a game.
I was very positive about AA coming in, we were getting very stale. But I guess it like Mike Tyson said”Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face”.
I’m hoping for a Rocky ending, whilst we go through this rocky patch-“. “ADR-EEAN!!’ Arms raised, as we get into a comfortable 12th place, with a cup in the trophy cabinet.
Always looking for a happy ending but this is the bitter sweet phase before we turn it around. Like to see AA running up those steps.
Tough to argue with a lot of this! If we don't get results from the next couple of games then I think the writing could be on the wall, although I'm willing them on to get these results! if we had got a couple of the results that the team should have held on for, I could have seen this team kicking on.
The one thing that AA has got wrong from day 1 is getting the fans onside. The opening game of the season, walking out before anyone else without any introduction and acknowledging the fans...... to walking off after throwing away another 3 points against Ipswich. Such a simple thing that you would have thought the club would drive!! The subs against ipswich were a concern.
COYW - big result needed next weekend.