Something is slowly starting to bubble in SW6. Since that Crystal Palace defeat in the league, Fulham have lost just one of the following six Premier League fixtures and people are starting to take notice.
The second half performance at Aston Villa has got people looking at us; it’s clear that what Alvaro Arbeloa is building is starting to take shape. While it’s not yet perfect, you feel a statement win could be coming - and this weekend at home to Newcastle United presents a fantastic opportunity.
Believe in the numbers
xG chat is about a interesting as a wall being painted, but it provides a valuable picture for the state of play currently at the Cottage. Fulham currently sit seventh on the expected points table, with the suggestion being we should’ve picked up an additional 5.2 points over the course of the opening nine games. I’m a firm believer in things being evened out throughout a 38-game campaign and one thing is for certain with this Fulham side: we like the ball and we get into exciting positions, but that final delivery isn’t quite cutting it yet.
Performances against Hull and Aston Villa particularly point this out. Gonzalo Garcia missed a sitter against the Yorkshire side while Josh King was unlucky not to get onto the scoresheet. Oscar Bobb has kicked into gear and Zion Suzuki pulled off a couple of blinding saves last Saturday, Alex Iwobi missed a few from close range and away at Coventry, Josh King hit the bar from close range. Our ability to create chances is encouraging, it’s only a matter of time before they hit the back of the net.
Gonzalo Garcia remains divisive, but I sit firmly in the believer camp. I think Aston Villa was a good performance from the youngster. He stretched play, brought others in all while not really creating a tonne. Players live and breathe for confidence and with Garcia being the second biggest under-performer in the league this season (-2.62 xG). I think it’ll only take one to give him that lift.
There for the taking
This is by no means a dig at Newcastle United, but this just feels like a perfect storm for Fulham (famous last words). Matthias Jaissle’s side are struggling; the strikers aren’t firing, inconsistency has struck and their record on the road this season has been patchy to say the least.
When things are low, they’re really low. Newcastle have already conceded four at Leeds, four at Coventry and three at Everton in the Carabao Cup and you get the feeling if one goes in at the Cottage, heads could drop. That combined with another disappointing result at home to Everton last weekend and Jacob Ramsey suspended for Saturday’s fixture, it all feels like it’s falling into place for Fulham.
Opportunity
I remember in 2023 there being a similar feeling. Fulham are showing the signs, they just need to put it all together in a performance. What followed next was a pair of 5-0 wins at the Cottage against Nottingham Forest and West Ham United. I’m not suggesting that Fulham are going to turn up and absolutely romp Newcastle but the signs are pointing in our favour.
People are starting to warm towards Arbeloa. He’s looked to have learned from his mistakes during those opening few games. I’m not saying it’s perfect and I’m still skeptical of his decisions from the bench, but this feels like a serious opportunity for him. Win on Saturday, begin to create what breathing space you can from the bottom three, and enter an international break in high spirits before our inevitable annual defeat at the Etihad.
It’s coming Fulham fans. Could it be Saturday?
Love the optimism Jack. Completely agree with your take on Gonzalo. He's a gem. With Sess playing further forward I think good things lie ahead. We have all the makings of a decent side with a promising young manager.
Best
Ben x
Great article again, loving the positivity coming from Fulhamish last few days!