We’re staring out over an extended international break still looking for our first win of the season. Our 1-1 draw at home to Manchester United moved us off the foot of the table on goal difference, but this is still miles below what many of us had hoped for during the summer.
When Arbeloa was hired there was a real mix between fans of what success looked like. Europe? Mid-table stability? Avoiding the drop? The outside noise certainly added to the frenzy but now we’ve got a chunk of games under our belt, how would we calculate success for Arbeloa this term?
A monumental October
Following Fulham’s 3-2 defeat to Crystal Palace there was a stunned silence at the Cottage. “What the f**ing hell was that?” was the cry from the Hammersmith End, and with Liverpool and United following it felt like going into the international break on a dreaded zero points could be a reality.
To be fair to Arbeloa and Fulham, the tide seems to be turning slowly. A positive stalemate at Anfield and a point that was so nearly three against Manchester United leaves room for optimism, but next month feels vital.
After the break we go to Ipswich, host Hull and travel to Coventry and while two of the three newly promoted sides have started well, Fulham simply have to get a a decent chunk of points from these games. This feels like a litmus test for Arbeloa, and with an extended break he and Fulham have time to work things out that still need to be improved and we need to come out of the traps flying.
I’m not too concerned by the fact we currently sit in the bottom three; the league table changes so quickly at this stage of the season and a positive up-turn in those three games changes the complexion of the season.
There’s also a small matter of the Carabao Cup Round of 16 at home to Crystal Palace crammed into these three vital league fixtures. Just because we need to perform in the league, I don’t want to see us throw away any opportunity of cup glory. We have a torrid record at home to the Eagles and a win here to push us into a quarter final of a cup competition will help alleviate pressure on the Spaniard.
Fulham are desperate for a cup and I think it would be telling of him as a coach if he chooses to play a weaker side against a Crystal Palace side we’ve already lost to this season. We must attack this next month on all fronts, because if we don’t, we may not be having any conversations about him come the November break.
Learning on the job
As well as points on the board, I (like many I’m sure) want to see Arbeloa continuing to learn and improve as a coach. We saw as real shift from that Crystal Palace game to when we went to Liverpool and while it wasn’t perfect against United, a point isn’t bad. But he and Fulham are still far from the finished article.
We still conceded a whopping 29 shots to Michael Carrick’s side last Sunday and if it weren’t for some fortune from the woodwork and a few great saves from Bernd Leno, we could’ve easily seen that one point turn into none. David Affengruber looks like our man at the back and the midfield two of Charles and Berge should be that from here on out, we just need to ensure that the spine of the squad doesn’t get too interrupted in October and we continue to improve on a defensive standpoint.
Another thing that has left cause for concern has been Arbeloa’s decision making in games, with the subs against Manchester United perplexing many. I’m not sure bringing off Berge and Iwobi was the smartest decision in a game we were clearly looking to see out. Those changes invited pressure and disrupted our flow of the game. Hopefully, Arbeloa has learnt from this.
The end of the road
The success or failure of the Arbeloa experiment really does rest on this next month, with a poor return probably seeing him out the door. That being said, the way he’s changed things up following that Palace game gives me cause for optimism.
We seem to have found a settled line-up, and with Josh King purring we should be able to kick on. We do need to see others deliver more around him to help get service up to Garcia but I think we’ll do enough in these next four.
So, what does success look like come May? For me, ensuring we stay in the division feels like the first step and two wins from the next three would certainly make things seem a lot more solid.
After that, I’d love Arbeloa to take the cup seriously and really give it a go. One thing is for certain though, the pendulum seems to be slowly swinging in Fulham’s favour and we need to keep that momentum going.
I see success being achieved over several seasons, not by the end of the coming Spring 2027. A total rebuild of the team and mentality is taking place after years of Marcoball. It will take time. It will be a bumpy ride.
for 26/7, I would be happy with a mid table placing and good convincing cup runs BUT without the frustrating losses to weak teams and the end of season 'already on the beach' tail off.
27/28 - Top 7 placing and a Europe spot, either via PL placing or Cup win.
There, done.
My worry is that the only positive changes AA has made are the blindingly obvious ones that 99% of us fans knew were needed from our armchairs. Beyond that what has he actually 'learned on the job'? I'm glad he proved not be as horribly stubborn and alienating as he threatened to be, but I'm still not convinced there is actually a good manager there. All he has really offered so far is a kamikaze alternative. And if Affengruber gets injured or suspended we are in deep doo-doo. It all feels very fragile. Success will be survival, simple as.