The Europa Conference League is not worth it for Fulham
Sam Eccles would love a trip to Pristina as much as the next person, but not at the risk of relegation.
I was there, that one time. When we lifted the Intertoto on that fateful summer’s evening at Loftus Road.
I’ve grown up now, though. The club has too.
With mid-table stability now firmly secured after a long, painful road, the back end of this season once again presents a genuine chance to push on and finally return to Europe. However, to progress from either a footballing or financial perspective, we should avoid the poisoned chalice of the Europa Conference League and go all out for the promised land of the Europa proper.
Money talks
Before even getting to the footballing reasons, competing in the Conference League goes against the club’s wider business strategy: growing revenue to achieve financial sustainability. The club would barely make a profit if it participated in the Conference League. According to The Swiss Ramble, if we qualified but lost every game, the club would receive just €3.17m. That’s not a lot in footballing terms, but it’s even less once travel and operational costs are factored in.
Compare that with the £127.8m Tottenham received for coming 17th in the Premier League last season, it’s pretty clear whether dedicating attention to that competition at the expense of the Premier League is worth the risk.
Granted, the Europa League doesn’t offer relatively much more than the Conference for participation, €4.3m in total, but the pedigree of the competition and the teams that play in it make that potential risk to our league form more worthwhile. On that note…
The road to the Championship hell is paved with good intentions
Unlike the butter on my hot cross bun this Easter, clubs that qualify for Europe typically spread themselves far too thin the following season and struggle in the league. This is especially true for clubs outside the traditional ‘top six’ that don’t have the depth required to compete on multiple fronts.
Nottingham Forest are a clear example for this season, with Palace flirting with the bottom three for parts of it too, although they qualified via the FA Cup.
When Burnley qualified for the Europa League by finishing seventh in the table in 2017/18, they finished 15th and six points above the drop zone the following season.
West Ham were also just six points above the relegation zone by the end of season they won the Conference League, having finished seventh the season prior.
Even ‘top six’ club Spurs have struggled. They finished 17th last season when they won the Europa League, coming fifth to qualify but face a real threat of relegation again this season.
There are of course caveats to all these examples - from a grumpy Aussie stubbornly pursuing kamikaze football, to one club owner cycling through managers faster than a divorced dad in Lycra.
The point being, while these clubs just about survived relegation the season after they qualified for Europe, it clearly doesn’t set them up for success in the long-term.
It starts a toxic spiral of low morale due to poor performances in the league and possibly Europe too, leading to personnel exits that creates further turmoil, causing even worse performances and ultimately a club less desirable for quality players and managers to join that also now benefits from less revenue due to a lower league finish.
Given the risky pursuit of European glory for clubs like ours, we should at least make it worth our while. That means, with seventh potentially being enough, we must not settle for the Conference and push on so the Europa League’s prodigal son can finally return home.