Five things to look out for ahead of Fulham’s make-or-break Hull clash

It’s safe to say this game’s a big one.

Credit: Adam Farquharson

I’ll be honest: last week I looked forward to writing the Ipswich preview. But after a heartbreaking defeat at the death, it isn’t excitement I feel coming into this fixture – it’s frustration.

Last weekend was meant to be the jump-off for Fulham, the first three points in the bag. Don’t get me wrong – the Tractor Boys had started strongly, but if Alvaro Arbeloa wanted to underline his ability to manage at the top level, this was his opportunity.

Instead, we saw a complete collapse based on tactical ineptitude and, in my opinion, outright ignorance of the opposition. Last week, we highlighted the strength and height presented all over the pitch by Ipswich; and so, deciding to cede control by bringing on the smallest person on the pitch and dropping back into a deep 4-4-2 to see out the game made no sense. I personally did not like this appointment in the summer, and like it less now.

This game is do or die for Arbeloa. Without a positive reaction here it’s time to push the red button. Rumours are already circling that Fulham have spoken to Thomas Frank and Vitor Pereira – there are lots of shouts for Eddie Howe, too.

On to our opponents, then. Hull surprised the footballing world by beating Manchester United on their return to the Premier League this season, and have continued to take scalps across the opening throws of the campaign. They’re organised, well disciplined and play with heart. Like Ipswich, they’re a big team with clear focal points in Ajayi and McBurnie, flanked with pace to burn in Geldhart, Thomas and Belloumi. They’ve invested well, and currently sit in eighth - and great value for it too.

As we head into this must-win clash, here are five things to look out for.

1. Changes up top

There isn’t much loyalty in football, but Arbeloa is certainly loyal to Gonzalo Garcia. While the Spaniard created chances, he has been guilty of missing big ones. The bigger concern will be the reluctance to put the ball into the box. Countless times against Ipswich, Kenny Tete found himself in a position to cross and deemed necessary to make an extra pass. There’s a lack of confidence in Gonzalo, who will once again come up against a pair of towering centre-halves this weekend, and this is removing some of our biggest attacking weapons – notably Tete’s crossing ability.

Since our return to the top flight, Fulham have played with a recognised target man, whether that’s Mitro, Raul Jimenez or Muniz. It’s in our DNA somewhat, and it’s not just the goalscoring threat that comes with a powerful forward; it’s out-balls, hold-up play and, frankly, giving the team the chance to rest and reset.

It’s well documented that Fulham have covered the most ground this season, but I’ve began to wonder how many of those kilometres are at the expense of not being able to maintain possession through the transition.

Juan Manuel Lillo was famous for saying “The quicker the ball goes forward, the quicker it comes back”; which I agree with, but in this instance, we’ve got to make it stick and that’s where Rodrigo must come in.

2. Counter-attacking Tigers

Sergei Jakirovic deserves a lot of credit for the work undertaken with Hull. From finishing a distant sixth in the Championship, winning the play-offs and now sitting eighth, it’s been an incredible journey for the Tigers. Their social media game has also been on-point too. The core of the team that won promotion remains, and their structured approach to games has been incredibly impressive.

Hull have developed a counter-attacking style of play that mixes instinct with systematic design. They clog the middle of the pitch and collapse quickly out of possession – using height and strength to cut passing lanes. Before springing wide on the counter, using pace on the fringes of the pitch to expose overcommitted areas of the pitch. Their second goal against Everton was a great example of their ability to break wide and then crash the box.

Fulham can counter this, though, and Hull have showed some weakness in wide areas. In the same game against Everton, the Toffees created several chances getting in behind full-backs and scored in the same manner. Chelsea also benefitted from this too. While Hull have a systematic way of getting forward, they can sometimes overcommit themselves too. Getting the ball forward quickly and hitting the channels on the transition will give Fulham joy.

3. The right in-game decisions

And by this, I mean don’t bring on a 5”7 midfielder to hold onto a 1-0 win. This game is likely to be won “in the margins”; set-pieces, counters and instinct. While Joachim Andersen has been underwhelming this season, it could be time for him to step back in.

Hull are a big team and will pile men forward at corners and free-kicks. The Whites once again looked vulnerable – and conceded to – a set piece against Ipswich. Further to that, it was Calvin Bassey’s worst showing in a Fulham shirt in recent memory. Perhaps having his old partner next to him might provide the confidence needed to keep a clean sheet.

Removing Shea Charles from the game was also a turning point for Fulham. I seem to mention this every week, but he really is growing into a fine player in the centre of the park. His partnership with Berge is improving, and I’d like to see both become more progressive with their movement of the ball and how they move up the pitch.

As we discussed last week, Fulham create a lot in early stages of the match and struggle thereafter. This could point to the extra kilometres covered hunting the ball down, but also a bigger nod to the substitutions that have been questionable throughout the season. Arbeloa must get it right with his substitutions this week, at this point he should know who his core players are for key moments, but he isn’t showing it. Please no more Emile Smith Rowe patrolling the edge of the box…

4. Press them high to force mistakes

This has been a notable part of Fulham’s game this season, we’ve created chances higher up the pitch than before but haven’t been able to convert them. Our xG often demonstrates this, and once again we are coming up against an opponent that can be hassled and harried.

It’s commendable that Hull have remained loyal to John Egan, Semi Ajayi and Lewie Coyle (£350k from Fleetwood Town, by the way); but they are vulnerable to the high press.

Everton’s second goal came as a reward from pressure that forced Ajayi into trouble, before he coughed up the ball of Thierno Barry to score. For all their height, being comfortable with the ball isn’t necessarily Hull’s game.

There are opportunities in the central areas too, as Hull line up in a 5-4-1 that typically sees their central midfielders covering smaller areas through the heart of the pitch, and could be an opportunity for Fulham to play around them and into the space in the flanks and channels. Hull will use their full-backs to funnel Fulham’s wide players inside where there is significant traffic and force them to cross from deep or take longer shots. Creating overloads will be a focal point of what Fulham try to achieve.

5. Arbeloa at the job centre?

Any less than a positive result should spell the end for Arbeloa, and perhaps some would argue that nine games (including cups) are too little to fairly judge him. But zero wins against Premier League opposition, two points and 10 goals conceded is not good form, whichever way you look at it.

This run of three fixtures had Fulham fans saying we must gain at least seven points, now it looks like Arbeloa’s future hinges on this game, and a portion of the fanbase are left wondering when we might win next. Ipswich was a demonstration of shortcomings in tactics and failing the get the best out of established Premier League players.

His post-match comments also left a sour taste in my mouth. Yes, Arbeloa won a lot as a player, but he was appointed Real Madrid manager because there was no alternative and went on to lose La Liga and crash out of the Copa Del Rey to Albacete.

You might have played and coached for the “best team in the world”, but this is Fulham now and it’s time to take the Real Madrid glasses off for a second on concentrate on getting three points.

COYW!