A (way too early) review of Fulham’s season so far

A deeper look at the first five games.

Credit: IMAGO

As we close out the second week of this never-ending international break, it feels like the perfect time to dive head-first into a review of the Arbeloa Era™ so far.

We all know the headline takeaway: five matches. 19th in the league. Two points from 15. Labelling the start of this campaign as a failure might be too strong, but there have certainly been teething problems.

Truthfully, it’s been hard to judge where the potential of this squad may lie; from the general stability of Silva to the potential upside of Arbeloa, there have been as many flaws as green shoots this season. And that rings true from some of the data available - and also the good old fashioned eye test.

Let’s try to break down the start in a few key areas:

Shape and style

As I’ve said before, Fulham had established themselves as a mid-block side under Silva, but the transformation is underway to play in a style that is far more proactive.

There are similarities; both sides retreat to a 4-4-1-1 in their defensive shape, they look for channel outlets and get narrow. That is mostly where the similarities stop, though, as Arbeloa’s Whites do like to roll their sleeves up (like their manager) and press higher.

Chelsea, Palace and Manchester United were good examples of Fulham setting traps and forcing mistakes in advanced areas. It appears, though, that the Whites might struggle to keep up the intensity, as late goals have hurt them in the opening stages of the season. Chance creation for the opposition spikes at the end of the first half, and the final 15 minutes. There are similarities to Bournemouth who showcased similar attributes last season, before working through the kinks.

In possession, there have been some notable changes from Silva, who relied on a semi-telegraphed approach to transitions and while in possession. This season, though, Arbeloa’s men are taking care of the ball more than ever, completing 85% of their passes and playing a shorter, interchangeable style.

Even visually, we’re beginning to see the squad look comfortable playing in tighter areas. Dribbles have also increased compared to last season, which is to be expected with King, Palacios, Iwobi and Bobb, who are comfortable carrying the ball and making space for the overlaps, which are going to be a trademark of this team. The Whites really do miss a target man, which has been the case since Mitrovic.

At the back

This is where Fulham have grown the most over the short season, where the defensive approach has transformed from “vibes only” to a very clear designation of roles between the two pivots. The Palace game acted as a watershed moment in so many ways, but the capitulation at the hands of two left-backs signalled the end of Arbeloa believing that leaving the centre-halves with no protection was acceptable.

Fulham have since tightened on the counter and worked on funnelling players into less dangerous positions. It’s clear that Berge is the anchor, and Charles is the motor with King/Iwobi playing the role of connector. The full-backs have also been reigned in, with only one pushing forward in most situations. Arbeloa read the Football Manager Wikipedia page and adjusted Timmy Chestnuts to a Full-Back on Support.

There is, though, a lot of work to be done with most of it coming in, or on the edge of, our own box. Fulham do look vulnerable from corners, as outlined in the Manchester United preview – and according to current data, are twice as likely to concede from a corner than score from one. West Ham was the biggest indication of our weaknesses in this area. And we’ll get touch on this again later, but this team is small in comparison to the rest of the league.

In the last two games before the break, there has been good progression defensively with far more balance, outlined by the xGA which dropped from 2.0 against Palace to 1.1 against Liverpool and Manchester United. I’ve really enjoyed the Charles and Berge double pivot – Shea particularly will be a fantastic asset.

Going forward

Right off the bat, let’s dive into more xG analysis: Fulham have been expected to outscore their opponents in three of the five games so far this season. Liverpool and Sunderland, where we wouldn’t have scored if the game last 900 minutes, are the only two outliers.

Excluding penalties, Fulham are tracking 2.74 goals beneath expected. I know, there will be some groans about the use of xG to demonstrate Fulham’s underlying attacking numbers but visually it’s there too – we are creating chances.

There are signs that the Whites are growing into their system - relationships between Josh King and the three attackers around him are blossoming. It’s not an overstatement to say that the success of this team rests on the shoulders of a 19 year old.

Similarly to Silva, there are formulated ways that Fulham drive up the pitch, but the shackles are looser than before, particularly with the front four players drifting into central and wide positions – 76% of our chances created come from wide positions. Down the left there have been better interchanges, notably with Robinson and Iwobi finding a groove – Fulham have looked at their best with Iwobi out wide, demonstrated by his 11 key passes.

The overall concern will be how one-dimensional we can look throughout the game and some of our passive play. There is an obvious reluctance to cross the ball into the box – even when a clear opening presents itself to a would-be crosser. While Gonzalo Garcia has looked dangerous, his lack of height alongside the towering centre-halves of the Premier League is having an impact on chance creation. Further exacerbated by Arbeloa’s reluctance to introduce, or start, Rodrigo Muniz.

Transitionally, Fulham have taken a step back from last season, without the presence of a larger forward they have spent 43% of their time in possession in the middle of the pitch, scoring only one goal from counter attacking situations so far this season.

There has been a passiveness in possession that does play into the hands of teams who get back into shape quickly; Fulham certainly need to take more risks and look to exploit other areas, such as the channels or shooting from distance – where chance creation has looked very positive. (Sander Berge if you read this, please shoot more!)

Overall Grade: C-

We touched on it during the introduction, but there are serious flaws to this Fulham team and had there not been three positive results (if we include West Ham) then a D grade could have been on the cards. But Fulham are growing into this season across all areas of the pitch, and their solitary two points are 4.5 lower than their expected six based on output. According this article on the BBC, we should finish 14th.

It’s safe to say that once the lads click, they’ll be motoring, but for now let’s deal with the teething issues and grab a haul of points from Ipswich, Hull and Coventry. Otherwise this could get scary quickly.

COYW.